Measuring Wins
January 10th, 2012
As a follow-up to Saturday’s post and last night’s BCS title game, I was asked about RPI rankings for this year. Strength of schedule and RPI are particularly important for NCAA football where, in this era of “buy games” and weak conferences, win-loss records must be taken with a grain of salt. It’s not just about how you play, but also who you play.
So I gathered 2011 NCAA data and ran it though the RPI programs we coded as Friday Fragments this time last year; see: http://derekwilliams.us/fragments/rpi.html. The top 10 teams by RPI are:
| Rank | Name | Record | Win % | RPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LSU | 13-1-0 | 0.929 | 0.701 |
| 2 | Alabama | 12-1-0 | 0.923 | 0.676 |
| 3 | Oklahoma St. | 12-1-0 | 0.923 | 0.670 |
| 4 | South Carolina | 11-2-0 | 0.846 | 0.643 |
| 5 | Arkansas | 11-2-0 | 0.846 | 0.638 |
| 6 | Kansas St. | 10-3-0 | 0.769 | 0.634 |
| 7 | Baylor | 10-3-0 | 0.769 | 0.633 |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 10-3-0 | 0.769 | 0.631 |
| 9 | Michigan | 11-2-0 | 0.846 | 0.630 |
| 10 | Oregon | 12-2-0 | 0.857 | 0.626 |
Teams like Stanford, Boise State, and Wisconsin aren’t in this top ten. That’s because, with their low strength of schedule ratings, the computer just doesn’t like them.
