Tag Archives: Power ranking

Just Ask the Mayans

“When in doubt, predict that the present trend will continue.”

Murphy’s Laws

It’s now an annual tradition here to calculate year-end NFL power rankings using tools we developed as Friday Fragments.  So I grabbed 2012 NFL regular season records and ran them through our tournament matrix calculator.  Of the resulting top 12 teams (by power ranking), 10 are in the playoffs:

Rank Team Power
1 Falcons 91
2 Texans 79
3 Broncos 77
4 Colts 76
5 Ravens 76
6 49ers 76
7 Packers 72
8 Patriots 67
9 Bears 65
10 Seahawks 59
11 Bengals 59
12 Rams 55

The Vikings and Redskins replace the Bears and Rams in real life.

These rankings look at the season as a whole, which is why my Falcons come out strongly on top.  But it’s a valid argument to weigh recent games more heavily; for example, if you remove the first 5 weeks, you wipe out the Broncos’ 3 losses, and they come in first.  Feel free to visit the page and run your own partial season calculations.

Of course, “past performance does not guarantee future results,” so that’s why they play ’em.  But one thing seems sure: it’s been an exciting regular season, and the postseason promises to be just as good.

Playoff Prognostication

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”

Niels Bohr

It’s NFL playoff time again, and seemingly everyone’s prognosticating.  Last year’s late rise of the Packers (6th seed who won it all) proved again that “past performance does not guarantee future results.”  But since a calculated guess is better than a wild one, I thought I’d run my own numbers using the power ranking tools we developed as Friday Fragments this time last year.

I gathered fresh data (2011 NFL regular season results) and ran it through http://derekwilliams.us/fragments/tourney.html.  Of the resulting top 12 teams (by power ranking), 11 are in the playoffs:

Rank Team Power
1 Packers 90
2 49ers 86
3 Saints 83
4 Steelers 83
5 Ravens 70
6 Bengals 68
7 Texans 67
8 Patriots 67
9 Giants 64
10 Lions 63
11 Falcons 61
12 Raiders 56

The Raiders (#12) didn’t make the playoffs; instead we have the Broncos who won the AFC West, but rank #22 (power 41).

This has the Packers winning it all again.  But with my Falcons at #11, I’m hoping for a few surprises, starting with tomorrow’s game against the Giants.